HTML5 vs. Flash has lately become the hottest topic within the global web dev community. Recently released Apple iPad which comes without Flash support adds the fuel to the discussion fire. And while the Open Standards evangelists are walking around the walls of Adobe headquarters wearing signs “The end of Flash is near!”, Adobe Flash fans are desperately defending their platform.

Let’s try to stay away from panic and have an unbiased look at what is going on.

What should happen to make HTML 5 the winner over Flash:

• HTML5 includes a comprehensive, sophisticated audio, video and animation tool set. Flash is much more than just web apps and video, that’s why HTML5 has to evolve considerable to be a decent competitor to Flash.
• HTML5 includes a universally-implementable default codec for the video tag. This could allow developers and customers to save money and efforts they have to put into supporting different players now.
• Canvas runtime is as easy in handling as Flash development interface. When Canvas is easier for non-programmers, it will be able to approximate to Flash’s widespread developer support.
• A wide variety of developer tools for working with the HTML 5 powered animation frameworks appears. Until that HTML5 only looks promising de facto having rather limited capability.
• Internet Explorer 8 supports HTML 5 completely OR Internet Explorer 8 unconditionally surrenders. When HTML 5 beats a Microsoft factor the benefits are obvious.
• HTML5 can be installed into older browsers. That will help new standards beat Flash Player which now has better backward compatibility, hence 98% users choose it for their browsers.

What actually is happening:

• HTML 5 is definitely a revolutionary update for the language that powers the web. It’s a serious competitor to Flash when it comes to web applications. Even with this, HTML 5 standard is still in a draft and it’s still incomplete.
• The browser manufacturers involved in the W3C working group developing HTML 5, couldn’t agree on a universally-implementable video codec, so it seems like a long time before all browsers will support the HTML 5.
• If you want to anime something in Flash it’s practically a no-brainer, while if you want to do the same for Canvas you need to have solid skills both in design and development and that’s surely not an optimistic perspective.
• Currently HTML 5 faces a chicken-and-egg sort of dilemma. Today there is a handful of developer tools for working with the animation frameworks that HTML 5 offers, but at least part of the reason there’s no developer tools is that the Canvas element isn’t widely supported.
• IE 8 doesn’t support very much of HTML 5 and since it is still a major browser vendor (somehow manages to hold between 15 and 20 per cent of the market), HTML 5 loses this tactic position.
• Currently HTML 5 backward compatibility is an issue. You can’t install it into older browser, but you can install Flash. In case you need it here and now, the solution seems obvious.

RECAP: HTML 5 is not a dummy for sure, but it’s not a threat to Flash either. At least so far. Even being charitable and assuming that HTML 5 becomes strong enough to kills Flash, it is going to be at least 10 years before it happens, and that’s is a whole lifetime in Internet years.

As for iPad question, we tend to share the views of Jens C Brynildsen, an experienced Flash developer and editor of the FlashMagazine: “To Flash developers it’s of course sad that so many people can’t enjoy what they’ve created, but the Flash Player can’t be the solution to everything. It’s just a tool that has phenomenal capabilities / reach and as developers we should choose the right tool for the job and not try to bend our tools into solving every task”.